Maixin Research

Demographics. Geopolitics. Innovation.


Things Don’t Matter Until They Do

Discussing Demographics

Principle

In a population of events, we tend to see a pattern that we can distribute and determine what we expect in future events. While the underlying system can impact the events – such as a logical or behavioral system – we can use the overall pattern to predict the future events. In some cases, events will cease or shift dramatically resulting in eliminating or changing the pattern where the former state never reverts, or the former state does not revert for a period of time.

The principle is stated as such: things don’t matter until they do. Since events tend to operate within a pattern, until a shift occurs, most predictions fall within the first observed pattern. Until a shift occurs shaking the events, we can expect the pattern to continue and use predictive mechanisms. The shifts in events may be foreseen by present assumptions, but these shifts are not always predictable.

Events do not continue indefinitely, unless they operate inside a system with a structure that allows for indefinite events. We can expect a pattern of events to occur until a shift changes the range of events.

Explained

Math: we have a set of one million numbers ranging from 0 to 2. The maximum possible aggregate would be 2 million with the minimum possible aggregate being zero. If we assume the maximum possible aggregate of 2 million and we observe an event measured at 1 billion, the average of the events jumps significantly, even if the previous event average was 2. If the new average represents a new state – such as a starting base or point, we will not see the normal set of events again.